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Mar. 17th, 2008 08:35 amI'm writing about something that is rather important to me and, most likely, to you too. I'd like to ask that you at least take a quick look and see what you think, even if you think I'm dead wrong.
In light of the major, and accelerating, nature of the current economic instability, I feel it's important to once again share a couple of links related to Peak Oil. Peak Oil, if you're unfamiliar with the concept, is generally meant to be the point at which human society's production of petroleum reaches the top of the bell curve.
See, all finite resources are produced in quantities that fit a bell curve graph. Only a little bit at first, then a slow increase, then a steep rise, then the rise flattens off until we hit a plateau at the top of the bell. From that point, the process repeats in reverse.
The major problem that we will face at that point is not running out of oil; at least half the oil that's there to be extracted will still be in the earth. The problem is that, at that peak point when about half the oil has been found and used, our production curve is going to begin to go down. There'll still be plenty left, but our industries, and society in general, that have continually grown and grown in demand levels, are suddenly going to not have enough oil. Demand will inexorably exceed supply.
Modern tecnological society is based on petrochemicals at every level. Transportation. Industry. Recreation. Agriculture. Everything. When there is not enough oil to supply the full needs of all of those industries, things will become very, very turbulent. Here's a thought experiment that applies to this. Suppose there are 1000 people who have a controllable condition that will have no effect on them as long as they take a daily dose of a certain medication, but will be quickly fatal without it. The medication costs a dollar a dose, and they all gladly pay it, of course. What happens when, one day, there are only 999 doses of medication available? Maybe the trees that produce it have been been over harvested. The why of it doesn't much matter. How much do you think these people will be paying for that dose of medication that only cost a dollar the day before?
Oil used to be cheap. It was cheaper than water sometimes, averaging around $20 to $25 a barrel. There was a spike during the energy crisis of the seventies because politics disrupted supply, but it went back down. Now it's spiking again, but not due as much to politics. Yes, the Arab nations, for the most part, hate us (and with good reason), but the whole world needs oil right now, and they're not getting any either. OPEC says they are choosing not to increase production at this time. I agree with a significant number of experts who believe that OPEC can't increase their production. They don't have reserve production to bring online. Their oil fields are old and becoming depleted past the half-way point, which means that, though there may be vast amounts of oil yet there, production is slowing as it becomes more difficult to get to it. Oil has increased in price up to five times it's long-time average and the trend shows few signs of reversing.
There are some possible alternate sources of oil and petrochemicals. Tar sands in Canada are one that a lot of people cite. I haven't seen any good evidence that these other sources are going to be able to make up for lost production in other areas, and they are seriously harmful to the environment.
As the discrepency between current demand and maximum supply grows, it is my belief that world financial instability (and make no mistake- what we are seeing right now is already world financial instability) will increase and become increasingly chaotic and unpredictable. Oil is the lifeblood of the economy of every idustrialized nation. It's our drug and we are addicts, and when an addict needs a fix, he's not going to stop at anything to get it. I fear that conflicts like the one that we've embroiled ourselves in in Iraq will become more commonplace as countries squabble over supplies. Prices of oil, and as a direct result, everything, are going to fluctuate and spike wildly in this era of international commerce and shipping. Everything is tied into everything else and when someone rocks the boat in America, Iraq, Russia, or anywhere else, the waves are going to crash on shores that are thousands of miles away. Things are going to get weird.
I'm trying to figure out how to prepare for a vast change in the nature of society. I don't really know how. My mom is starting an organic farm this summer and I'm going to do my best to support that as a small step. As oil becomes harder to get, local economy is going to be become hugely important, and I'd like to be a part of that and encourage it. I don't really know what else to do apart from try to use fewer resources, try to get a more fuel efficient vehicle (purely a stop-gap measure; the culture of the automobile is not a sustainable one in this country), and, if fate is kind, manage to buy the house I want in Bristol with some land on it where I can grow some food and put up solar panels and such. I should learn to be handier at the forge too; maybe someday I'll be making and selling iron work locally. It would be neat to make my own plant hangers, gate hooks, hinges, that sort of thing. Andrea and I are talking about supporting a local subscription farmer by buying a membership in a CSA and trying to eat more locally. I have refused to shop at Walmart for the last five or six years, but I should work harder at shopping even more locally wherever I can.
I guess that's the best, most important thing to think about. Do your best to support local economy where you can. Don't buy McDonalds caeser salads with ingrediants that come en masse from thousands of miles away when you can make your own with produce from local farmers. Think about how absurdly far some of things that you use had to travel to get to you and how much oil was used in getting them there, and consider whether you have any reasonable alternatives. I'm going to work on that myself; I'm far from perfect. I just think this knowledge is not nearly as common as it ought to be and that it's important to use the resources available to me to spread it.
Even if you think this is an unlikely scenario, please think about it a little bit. Every resource is finite. Every resource will eventually run out when used unchecked. Is it so far-fetched that we could be seeing that with oil right now?
In light of the major, and accelerating, nature of the current economic instability, I feel it's important to once again share a couple of links related to Peak Oil. Peak Oil, if you're unfamiliar with the concept, is generally meant to be the point at which human society's production of petroleum reaches the top of the bell curve.
See, all finite resources are produced in quantities that fit a bell curve graph. Only a little bit at first, then a slow increase, then a steep rise, then the rise flattens off until we hit a plateau at the top of the bell. From that point, the process repeats in reverse.
The major problem that we will face at that point is not running out of oil; at least half the oil that's there to be extracted will still be in the earth. The problem is that, at that peak point when about half the oil has been found and used, our production curve is going to begin to go down. There'll still be plenty left, but our industries, and society in general, that have continually grown and grown in demand levels, are suddenly going to not have enough oil. Demand will inexorably exceed supply.
Modern tecnological society is based on petrochemicals at every level. Transportation. Industry. Recreation. Agriculture. Everything. When there is not enough oil to supply the full needs of all of those industries, things will become very, very turbulent. Here's a thought experiment that applies to this. Suppose there are 1000 people who have a controllable condition that will have no effect on them as long as they take a daily dose of a certain medication, but will be quickly fatal without it. The medication costs a dollar a dose, and they all gladly pay it, of course. What happens when, one day, there are only 999 doses of medication available? Maybe the trees that produce it have been been over harvested. The why of it doesn't much matter. How much do you think these people will be paying for that dose of medication that only cost a dollar the day before?
Oil used to be cheap. It was cheaper than water sometimes, averaging around $20 to $25 a barrel. There was a spike during the energy crisis of the seventies because politics disrupted supply, but it went back down. Now it's spiking again, but not due as much to politics. Yes, the Arab nations, for the most part, hate us (and with good reason), but the whole world needs oil right now, and they're not getting any either. OPEC says they are choosing not to increase production at this time. I agree with a significant number of experts who believe that OPEC can't increase their production. They don't have reserve production to bring online. Their oil fields are old and becoming depleted past the half-way point, which means that, though there may be vast amounts of oil yet there, production is slowing as it becomes more difficult to get to it. Oil has increased in price up to five times it's long-time average and the trend shows few signs of reversing.
There are some possible alternate sources of oil and petrochemicals. Tar sands in Canada are one that a lot of people cite. I haven't seen any good evidence that these other sources are going to be able to make up for lost production in other areas, and they are seriously harmful to the environment.
As the discrepency between current demand and maximum supply grows, it is my belief that world financial instability (and make no mistake- what we are seeing right now is already world financial instability) will increase and become increasingly chaotic and unpredictable. Oil is the lifeblood of the economy of every idustrialized nation. It's our drug and we are addicts, and when an addict needs a fix, he's not going to stop at anything to get it. I fear that conflicts like the one that we've embroiled ourselves in in Iraq will become more commonplace as countries squabble over supplies. Prices of oil, and as a direct result, everything, are going to fluctuate and spike wildly in this era of international commerce and shipping. Everything is tied into everything else and when someone rocks the boat in America, Iraq, Russia, or anywhere else, the waves are going to crash on shores that are thousands of miles away. Things are going to get weird.
I'm trying to figure out how to prepare for a vast change in the nature of society. I don't really know how. My mom is starting an organic farm this summer and I'm going to do my best to support that as a small step. As oil becomes harder to get, local economy is going to be become hugely important, and I'd like to be a part of that and encourage it. I don't really know what else to do apart from try to use fewer resources, try to get a more fuel efficient vehicle (purely a stop-gap measure; the culture of the automobile is not a sustainable one in this country), and, if fate is kind, manage to buy the house I want in Bristol with some land on it where I can grow some food and put up solar panels and such. I should learn to be handier at the forge too; maybe someday I'll be making and selling iron work locally. It would be neat to make my own plant hangers, gate hooks, hinges, that sort of thing. Andrea and I are talking about supporting a local subscription farmer by buying a membership in a CSA and trying to eat more locally. I have refused to shop at Walmart for the last five or six years, but I should work harder at shopping even more locally wherever I can.
I guess that's the best, most important thing to think about. Do your best to support local economy where you can. Don't buy McDonalds caeser salads with ingrediants that come en masse from thousands of miles away when you can make your own with produce from local farmers. Think about how absurdly far some of things that you use had to travel to get to you and how much oil was used in getting them there, and consider whether you have any reasonable alternatives. I'm going to work on that myself; I'm far from perfect. I just think this knowledge is not nearly as common as it ought to be and that it's important to use the resources available to me to spread it.
Even if you think this is an unlikely scenario, please think about it a little bit. Every resource is finite. Every resource will eventually run out when used unchecked. Is it so far-fetched that we could be seeing that with oil right now?
- Wikipedia article about the concept of peak Oil: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
- Peak oil related news and message boards: http://www.peakoil.com/
- Web site for an educational movie on the subject (I have a copy and would love to give you one; I can even put it on my server for you to download) http://www.endofsuburbia.com/
- More general information: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
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